Tuesday, 6 October 2009

Johnald's Fantastical Daily Link Splurge

Johnald's Fantastical Daily Link Splurge


Right Stuff, Wrong Sex: NASA’s Lost Female Astronauts

Posted: 06 Oct 2009 10:09 AM PDT

tilttable

Imagine if the first person on the moon had proclaimed, "That's one small step for woman, one giant leap for mankind."

It could have happened. In the late 1950s, the United States government contemplated training women as astronauts, and newly released medical test results show that they were just as cool and tough as the men who went to the moon.

"They were all extraordinary women and outstanding pilots and great candidates for what was proposed," said Donald Kilgore, a doctor who evaluated both male and female space flight candidates at the Lovelace Clinic, a mid-century center of aeromedical research. "They came out better than the men in many categories."

The clinic's founder, Randy Lovelace, developed the health assessments used to select the Mercury 7 team, and thought that women might make competent astronauts. It was a radical idea for the era. Women's liberation had just begun to stir, and only a quarter of U.S. women had jobs.

But Lovelace was practical: Women are lighter than men, requiring less fuel to transport them into space. They're also less prone to heart attacks, and Lovelace considered them better-suited for the claustrophobic isolation of space.

In 1959, Lovelace collaborator Donald Flickinger, an Air Force general and NASA advisor, founded the Women In Space Earliest program in order to test women for their qualifications as astronauts. But the Air Force canned it before testing even started, prompting Lovelace to start the Woman in Space Program.

cobbNineteen women enrolled in WISP, undergoing the same grueling tests administered to the male Mercury astronauts. Thirteen of them —later dubbed the Mercury 13 —passed "with no medical reservations," a higher graduation rate than the first male class. The top four women scored as highly as any of the men.

"They were all motivated to a degree you could not measure. They knew they were ideal candidates, but NASA regulations kept them out of the game," said Kilgore.

The results of the women's tests are described for the first time in an article published in the September Advances in Physiology Education, and show just how capable they. One set of results, from the sensory deprivation tests, are especially striking.

"Based on previous experiments in several hundred subjects, it was thought that 6 hours was the absolute limit of tolerance for this experience before the onset of hallucinations," write Kilgore and his co-authors. "[Jerrie] Cobb, however, spent 9 hours and 40 minutes during the experiment, which was terminated by the staff. Subsequently, two other women (Rhea Hurrle and Wally Funk) were also tested, with each spending over 10 hours in the sensory isolation tank before termination by the staff."

During the test, the women were immersed in a lightless tank of cold water. By contrast, John Glenn's memoir recounts being tested in a dimly-lit room, where he was provided with a pen and paper. Glenn's test lasted just three hours.

The would-be Mercury 13 astronauts would ultimately be held to a different standard than their male counterparts. Some NASA officials speculated that female performance could be impaired by menstruation. Others wanted pilots who had already flown experimental military aircraft — something only men could have done, since women were barred from the Air Force.

In August 1961, WISP was cancelled. It was not until 1995, when Eileen Collins piloted the STS-63 shuttle around the MIR space station, that the Mercury 13 met again. Collins was the first woman to become a space pilot, but not the first woman who deserved to.

"They knew it was a long shot, but they were willing to take it," said Kilgore. "They were very special people."

See Also:

Citation: "A forgotten moment in physiology: the Lovelace Woman in Space Program (1960–1962)." By Kathy L. Ryan, Jack A. Loeppky and Donald E. Kilgore, Jr. Advances in Physiology Education, Vol. 33 No. 3, September 2009.

Image: Jerrie Cobb on a tilt table and beside a Mercury capsule, from Advances in Physiology Education.

Brandon Keim's Twitter stream and reportorial outtakes; Wired Science on Twitter. Brandon is currently working on a book about ecosystem and planetary tipping points.

The Making of a Mind-Blowing Space Photo

Posted: 06 Oct 2009 05:43 AM PDT

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One late night in 2007, Rogelio Bernal Andreo and his wife were driving down Highway 1 along California's Lost Coast, when his wife opened the moon roof. What spread out above them looked nothing like the mauve sky near their Sunnyvale home.

"It was like the Milky Way was in front of us," said Andreo, a former early eBay employee, who runs a Spanish-language Internet company. "It looked like it was gonna fall on us."

He pulled out his digital SLR camera and spent two hours trying to capture the vast galaxy. When he got home, he downloaded the photos, and caught the astrophotography bug.

"I started to look at on the internet and see all these pictures, really gorgeous pictures," Andreo said. "I said, 'How do people do this?'"

Two years of intensive study, rigorous practice, and perhaps $10,000 of equipment later, he knows. And he let Wired.com in on his process. Step-by-step, we'll break down how he went from the black-and-white star scene below to the mind-blowing space photo above.

Thanks to cheaper high-quality digital cameras and editing equipment, creating beautiful images of galaxies, nebulae, and star clusters is now within the reach of anyone with a few thousand dollars to spend.

So, we live in a golden age for space photos, but looking at the technicolor images of what appears to the naked eye to be a fairly bland sky, we find ourselves asking: does it really look like that?

As we find in this behind-the-scenes look at the making of a mind-blowing space photo, the answer is yes — but just not to your eyes, which are pretty poor sensors, compared with purpose-built astrophotographic equipment.

But that doesn't mean the photos aren't "real." Most astrophotographers have an ethic: They won't add color or lasso just a part of an image for editing. They can only bring things out of the data, not add them. The photos are often processed in Photoshop, but what they do is the opposite of falsifying the visual reord through. Astrophotographers are using digital editing tools to find the truth in the noisy data that are the heavens.

"The stuff up there is really dim," Andreo said. "The good thing is that the camera records all that and the trick is to bring it out."

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The first step in getting a good space photo is picking a spot without light pollution from cities. In northern California, Andreo prefers Lake San Antonio, Henry Coe State Park, and Fremont Peak, depending on how far he wants to drive.

His equipment list is long. He packs a Takahashi telescope, Takahashi mount, tripod, SBIG STL11000M camera, adapters, cables, deep-cycle marine batteries, an Asus eee laptop, food, and coffee of course.

This photo is how the process begins. It's the first of 11 black-and-white exposures that he'll make. The field of view is just the left third — the area around the bright blue stars of Orion's belt — of the completed panorama at the top of the page.

"This is just one shot, a fifteen-minute exposure," Andreo said. "That's how it comes out of the camera. The original size of the picture is like 20 megabytes."

Of course, he shoots in RAW format with no compression to maximize the amount of data the images retain.

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Now, the processing begins. Andreo takes his eleven exposures and "stacks" them in Photoshop, one on top of the other. Then, he averages their data to screen out the noise. Each exposure has a set of random noise in some subset of pixels. By combining them, the good pixels outweigh the bad pixels and you end up with a less noisy image.

"The stuff that's really up there is going to stay, but the noise — because it was random — is goingto disappear," he said.

At this stage, he also does background calibration, which tends to brighten the image and make it a little "creamier."

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Here, Andreo has started to "push the histogram," as astrophotographers say.

"You push up or down the low levels of the image and the high levels of the image and more data starts to show up," he said. "It's the first thing that most people are going to do. Once you stack your images, then adjust your histogram a little to see how much stuff is really there."

Here, more stars are obviously apparent and the creaminess has gone away with the processing for greater contrast. Next comes the color.

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After he shoots an area of the sky with the monochrome, high-resolution filter, he switches to separate red, green, and blue filters. He goes through the same process for each color component as he did for the black-and-white image. He takes multiple exposures, combines them, and does background calibration.

"It's just red green and blue combined and slightly stretched to bring out all the detail," Andreo said. "You start to see more of pretty picture, basically."

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Here, Andreo has draped the color data onto the more detailed luminance image.

"I take the RGB that you saw from the previous image, and I put it on top of the luminance," Andreo said, "but I don't want the details, I just want the color information."

Once that's complete, he pushes the histograms some more or perhaps adjusts the levels in the image to bring out the details. Some of the artistry comes out in this stage.

"Because there is a lot of creativity, with the same set of raw data, two different people are going to come up with different things," he said.

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The last step was simply to rotate it vertically because he just "liked it more this way." After all, the number of targets for amateur astrophotographers is fairly limited. Framing is a key component of standing out.

"I'm hoping that my final picture will escape mediocrity," he said. "It may not be the best you've ever seen, but at least it's not just one more."

Later, that rotation turned out fortuitously when a friend saw the image and suggested he combine it with photos he'd taken of an adjacent region of the sky.

Working with a program called Register that helps photographersjoin their photos by identifying the common stars in different images, he stitched the images together. It required rotating and cropping his original Orion belt, but when the mosaic was finished, it was absolutely breathtaking. Last month, it was selected by NASA as the agency's Astronomy Picture of the Day for September 18th.

The image certainly traveled a long way from its initial incarnation to the finished product, but is the first image any more real than the last? Does adding dozens of exposures together and "pushing the histogram" add or subtract from the reality of the image?

After stepping through the transformation, we're not convinced either way, but we're sure glad that someone takes pictures of space that look like pieces of the heavens.

Images: Rogelio Bernal Andreo.

See Also:

WiSci 2.0: Alexis Madrigal's Twitter, Google Reader feed, and green tech history research site; Wired Science on Twitter and Facebook.

7 Glow-in-the-Dark Mushroom Species Discovered

Posted: 05 Oct 2009 01:15 PM PDT

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Seven new glowing mushroom species have been discovered in Belize, Brazil, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Japan, Malaysia and Puerto Rico.

Four of the species are completely new to scientists, and three previously known species were discovered to be luminescent. All seven species, as well as the majority of the 64 previously known species of luminescent mushrooms, are from the Mycena family.

"What interests us is that within Mycena, the luminescent species come from 16 different lineages, which suggests that luminescence evolved at a single point and some species later lost the ability to glow," said biologist Dennis Desjardin of San Francisco State University, lead author of the study published Monday in the journal Mycologia.

The new discoveries might help scientists understand when, how and why mushrooms evolved the ability to glow. Desjardin suspects that luminescence might attract nocturnal animals, which would then help the mushrooms spread their spores.

Image above: Mycena silvaelucens (forest light) was collected in the grounds of an Orangutan Rehabilitation Center in Borneo, Malaysia and was found on the bark of a standing tree. The mushrooms are tiny with each cap measuring less than 18 millimeters in diameter. / Brian Perry, University of Hawaii

Nobel Winners Isolate Protein Behind Immortality, Cancer

Posted: 05 Oct 2009 12:51 PM PDT

chromosomes

This year's Nobel Prize in medicine went to a trio of scientists who discovered the enzyme telomerase, which allows cells to divide without any limits, making them effectively immortal.

It may be nature's greatest double-edged sword. Coax cells into producing telomerase, and they will survive indefinitely, but they will also become cancerous.

To safeguard against cancer, adult cells keep track of how many times that they have multiplied, and once they have reached a pre-set limit — often around 80 divisions — they die. Telomerase interferes with this record keeping.

If you can find a drug or gene therapy that interferes with telomerase, it could fight the unchecked growth of cancer cells, said Mark Muller, a cancer researcher who studies telomeres at the University of Central Florida.

"Ninety percent of all cancer cells are telomerase rich," Muller said.

Several companies, including Geron, have started testing drugs that gum up the telomerase enzyme, so that it can't extend the lives of cancer cells.

Telomerase lengthens telomeres, repetitive DNA sequences that sit at the ends of chromosomes. Each segment of a telomere is like a ticket that gives it permission to divide. When cells run out of those credits, they cease dividing.

Geron is developing a modified DNA molecule that gets stuck inside of telomerase, so that it can't build up the ends of telomeres in cancer cells. The company is also working with a vaccine that trains cancer patients' immune systems to attack cells that produce telomerase. In adults, almost all of the cells that produce telomerase are cancerous.

Those cancer treatments took shape almost 20 years after academics made a breakthrough discovery.

In the early 1980's Elizabeth Blackburn, Carol Greider and Jack Szostak identified telomerase and learned how it works. Some scientists speculated people could live longer by using the enzyme to buy extra time for their aging cells, but that idea remains risky and unproven.

"By itself, lengthening telomeres would probably just increase the rate of tumor formation," said Chris Patil, a researcher at the Buck Institute for Age Research in Novato, California. "Experiments with mice have shown that lengthening telomeres extends lifespan, but only if you introduce multiple other mutations to block cancer."

Considering the risks of telomere-extension therapy, he thinks that scientists have bigger fish to fry.

"In the absence of a comprehensive understanding, it's very dangerous," Muller said. "We have to figure out how to do maintenance on our telomeres."

Muller thinks humans could live for 90 to 210 years once scientists know more about the molecular basis of aging.

"If we could figure out how to do maintenance, we could extend our lives," he said. "But it has to be done very carefully, and we'd have to have a comprehensive understanding of the mechanism. "

found

Images: 1) Chromosomes in a dividing cell. National Institutes of Health. 2) Wired forecasted telomeric gene extension therapy in the Found section of issue 15-09 by Alex Katz, Erik Pawassar, and Chris Baker.

See Also:

Infrared Video: 500,000 Bats Emerge From Cave

Posted: 05 Oct 2009 12:43 PM PDT

Bats use echolocation to see in the dark, but unfortunately human scientists cannot do the same.

That poses a problem for ecologists who want to know, for example, how many Brazilian free-tailed bats live in the Carlsbad Caverns of New Mexico. Researchers can't shine a light on them because that disrupts their behavior, but they can't see them without light. The answer? Infrared cameras, of course.

By installing infrared sensors, life scientist Nickolay Hristov of Winston-Salem State University and Thomas Kunz of Boston University were able to study the bat colonies in great detail from less than 50 feet away. They discovered that only something like 4 million bats live in the large colonies, an order of magnitude less [pdf] than previously estimated by visual inspection methods in the 1950s.

Beyond the science, their work also yielded tremendous video, which was posted at The Scientist. Embedded above, the team's infrared camera captured half a million bats emerging from the cave to feed at night.

The next step in this see-in-the-dark science will be taking data with multiple cameras, so that the scientists can triangulate the precise positions of the bats during flight, Hristov said.

See Also:

WiSci 2.0: Alexis Madrigal's Twitter, Google Reader feed, and green tech history research site; Wired Science on Twitter and Facebook.

Roman Coin Hoards Show More War Means Fewer Babies

Posted: 05 Oct 2009 12:06 PM PDT

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Coins buried by anxious Italians in the first century B.C. can be used to track the ups and downs of the Roman population during periods of civil war and violence.

In times of instability in the ancient world, people stashed their cash and if they got killed or displaced, they didn't come back for their Geld. Thus, large numbers of coin hoards are a good quantitative indicator of population decline, two researchers argue in in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science Monday.

And it turns out that during the periods we know to have been violent — the Second Punic War, the Social War and various civil wars — hoarding behavior soars, providing a statistical peek into the life of your average Italian 2,000 years ago.

"During that period, we have a good literary record. Caesar died because he was killed by assassins," said Peter Turchin, a population ecologist at the University of Connecticut. "We don't know what happened to common people. [Coin hoards] tell us what happened to common people."

The new work could help settle a long-standing historical debate about the Roman population. Census figures from the end of the second century B.C. show a population of adult males of around 400,000. Then, the record goes blank, and census figures from around a hundred years later show a population of 4 to 5 million. Some of the population explosion is explained by the extension of Roman citizenship to various groups, but far from all of it. From this evidence, a group of historiansknown asthe "high-count" hypothesizers have argued there was excellent population growth during that period.

Another group of historians had an alternate explanation for the appearance of population growth. They figured that the later census takers had started to count women and children, rather than just adult males, as part of the official population stats.

Without more information about the ancient world, it was difficult to settle the argument one way or another. Turchin, though, knew from previous work that warfare and instability don't tend to deliver robust population growth in societies.

"Population growth and instability are negatively correlated," Turchin said.

He teamed up with Walter Scheidel, a Stanford classicist and historian, to create a model of population growth and decline based on coin-hoard data gathered over the years. Their model's predictions match well with the early census data. The population projections they derive make the "high-count" hypothesis "highly implausible," they argue.

That has important implications for Roman history, but not too much history will actually be rewritten. It was the high-counters who were hoping to revise the Italian population up from what earlier historians had assumed.

Image: A hoard of Roman coins from the Bristol Museum.
flickr/Synwell Liberation Front.

See Also:

WiSci 2.0: Alexis Madrigal's Twitter, Google Reader feed, and green tech history research site; Wired Science on Twitter and Facebook.

Termite Altruism Might Have Roots in War

Posted: 05 Oct 2009 12:00 PM PDT

termitesAltruism might have evolved for fairly selfish reasons, at least in insects.

When a warring termite colony loses its king and queen — the only members capable of reproduction —then its survivors merge with the victor colony, treating genetically unrelated former enemies as if they were siblings.

In the short term, this makes no sense. But in the long term, because replacement royalty is recruited from among worker bugs, it's the losers'best shot at eventually reproducing.

"You could go off and start your own colony, but that's risky," said Philip Johns, a Bard College evolutionary biologist. "This way, there's a good chance a king or queen may die, and then you have a chance at taking over."

The drama of termite succession, described Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, is the latest addition to a long, rich history of research into insect altruism, which has fascinated and perplexed scientists since Darwin.

At its most extreme, insect altruism takes the form of eusociality, in which entire insect castes are unable to reproduce, and devote their lives to caring for other colony members. This is what makes giant insect colonies possible. But through a framework of classic evolutionary genetics, it doesn't compute. Organisms are supposed to be driven to reproduce their genes.

The conundrum was solved for a while by Bill Hamilton, an evolutionary biologist who showed that eusociality could be explained by the relatedness of colony members. In some insect species, workers share more genes with their siblings than with their own hypothetical offspring.

But Hamilton's position has become controversial, partly because of termites species who aren't so closely related to their siblings, but practice eusociality nonetheless. The cooperation described in the PNAS paper is especially striking: The species weren't related to one another at all, yet came together like family.

When the researchers studied the newly joined colonies 18 months later, however, the merging made sense. They found individuals from both original colonies, as well as new, hybrid members. Kings and queens could be chosen from among the newcomers, and termite royalty is frequently replaced: In termite battles, they're always the first targets.

The species used in the study, Zootermopsis nevadensis, is especially primitive, with colonies comprising a few dozen members. It's believed to resemble the first termite species to evolve eusociality.

Later on, when colonies expanded from a few dozen members to millions, and entire sterile castes there no longer had any meaningful chance of being picked to reproduce, it didn't matter.

"There's a point of no return," Johns speculated. "The colonies have huge advantages over non-eusocial colonies." They out-competed one another.

Johnson was hesitant to extrapolate from the findings to the origin of human altruism, but said that other researchers have suggested human altruism evolved in a crucible of similar group-level competition.

"They posit what early human societies were like: small populations, high rates of encountering others. And when they did meet, there was a fight," Johnson said.

Image: Cornell University

See Also:

Citation: Nonrelatives inherit colony resources in a primitive termite." By Philip M. Johns, Kenneth J. Howard, Nancy L. Breisch, Anahi Rivera and Barbara L. Thorne. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 106, No. 39, October 5, 2009.

Brandon Keim's Twitter stream and reportorial outtakes; Wired Science on Twitter. Brandon is currently working on a book about ecosystem and planetary tipping points.

Monday, 5 October 2009

Johnald's Fantastical Daily Link Splurge

Johnald's Fantastical Daily Link Splurge


Dark Energy Hunters Catch a Wave

Posted: 05 Oct 2009 06:33 AM PDT

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A new project to create a 3D map of space so large that scientists can find a 500 million-light-year-size remnant from the early universe inside it began operation last month.

The Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey opened its eyes to the universe, taking in data from hundreds of galaxies and quasars in the constellation Aquarius, from its perch on the Apache Point Observatory in New Mexico. Eventually, it will image two million galaxies and quasars.

"The data from BOSS will be some of the best ever obtained on the large-scale structure of the universe," said David Schlegel, an astronomer heading the team from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, in a press release.

BOSS was built atop the Sloan Digital Sky Survey infrastructure, which created a smaller map of the universe in our neighborhood. The scientists put in new CCDs to better capture the infrared light that arrives redshifted from its trip across billions of light-years. They also remade the fiber optics system so they could capture more objects.

"We've rebuilt this telescope to make a much bigger map of the sky. We put in more optical fibers. We jammed in as many as we could fit," Schlegel said. "It's a mix of high-tech and low-tech. Every object we observe, we machine these plug plates and plug in these optical fibers." (See the image at the top of the page.)

Over vast areas millions of light-years across, the astronomers will map the enormous imprint of compression waves that blew through the early, hot universe and became etched into the distribution of matter. It's like measuring a sound wave pushing air molecules around, Schlegel said, but what the wave has moved isgalaxies instead ofmolecules.

"These sound waves have been imprinted on the structure of everything in the universe. Most famously, they are seen in the microwave background," Schlegel told Wired.com. "But you can also see it imprinted on all the structures of the galaxies today."

That imprint, called the baryon acoustic oscillation, will yield important insights about the nature of dark energy, about which we know next to nothing. Scientists will be able to use the BAO as an enormous ruler for measuring how the universe has expanded.

"It's a big-ass ruler," said Schlegel. "It happens to be about 500 million light-years. Even for us, that's big."

BOSS will be observing the sky for the next five years. What the scientists hope the ruler will allow them to do is understand the period of accelerating expansion that began about six billion years ago.

"What we think happened is that we've entered this period of acceleration of the universe just in the last six billion years," Schlegel said. "When the universe was half as old as it is now, it was decelerating and then all of a sudden it started accelerating, which we don't understand."

The problem is that we don't have good data from that time period. Thanks to intensive study of the cosmic background radiation, we have expansion information from when the universe was only 400,000 years old. Then we have very recent observations from supernovae.

"But we don't have much in between," Schlegel said.

If BOSS can fill in that gap, we could not only learn about this mysterious something we call dark energy, but also grasp what happened during the universe's adolescent growth spurt.

See Also:

WiSci 2.0: Alexis Madrigal's Twitter, Google Reader feed, and green tech history research site; Wired Science on Twitter and Facebook.

Saturday, 3 October 2009

Johnald's Fantastical Daily Link Splurge

Johnald's Fantastical Daily Link Splurge


Supermassive Black Holes Bringing Universe Closer to Death

Posted: 02 Oct 2009 10:55 AM PDT

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For all its tumult — erupting stars, colliding galaxies, collapsing black holes — the cosmos is a surprisingly orderly place. Theoretical calculations have long shown that the entropy of the universe — a measure of its disorder — is but a tiny fraction of the maximum allowable amount.

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A new calculation of entropy upholds that general result but suggests that the universe is messier than scientists had thought — and slightly further along on its gradual journey to death, two Australian cosmologists conclude.

An analysis by Chas Egan of the Australian National University in Canberra and Charles Lineweaver of the University of New South Wales in Sydney indicates that the collective entropy of all the supermassive black holes at the centers of galaxies is about 100 times higher than previously calculated. Because supermassive black holes are the largest contributor to cosmic entropy, the finding suggests that the entropy of the universe is also about 100 times larger than previous estimates, the researchers reported online September 23 at arXiv.org.

Entropy quantifies the number of different microscopic states that a physical system can have while looking the same on a large scale. For instance, an omelet has higher entropy than an egg because there are more ways for the molecules of an omelet to rearrange themselves and still remain an omelet than for an egg, notes cosmologist Sean Carroll of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.

A black hole is the entropy champ because there are myriad ways for all the material that has fallen into it to be arranged microscopically while the black hole retains the same numerical values for its observable properties — charge, mass and spin.

Researchers who previously calculated the cosmic sum of black hole entropy had assumed that, on average, each galaxy houses a 10 million solar-mass black hole at its center. Under this assumption, researchers had determined that supermassive black holes contribute an entropy of about 10102, in units derived from a quantity known as Boltzmann's constant.

In contrast, Egan and Lineweaver relied on new data that included a fuller range of the masses of supermassive black holes rather than just using the average mass. "The upshot was thatmuch more entropy is contributed by a smaller population of much larger, 1-billion-solar-massblack holes," Egan says.

Carroll says that the team's calculation looks sensible. "I see no reason to doubt their numbers," he says.

Having a more reliable entropy estimate is important, says Egan, because for life or other complex phenomena to exist, the entropy of the universe must be less than the maximum possible value. Consider, he notes, when hot water is poured into a cold bath. Initially the hot and cold water are separate and the system is orderly — it has low entropy. But once the hot and cold water are thoroughly mixed, the entropy is maximized and no further heat flow is possible.

In the case of the universe, Egan says, "we'd like to know [when and] if the entropy will eventuallyreach a maximum value, marking the end of all dissipative processes, including life."Physicists have dubbed that maximum entropy "heat death."

Egan and Lineweaver's new value for the entropy of the universe is still a billionth of a billionth the maximum possible entropy that researchers have estimated. Nonetheless, the new value "indicates that that the universe is a bit closer to the heat death than previously computed," comments theorist Paul Davies of Arizona State University in Tempe.

Not everyone agrees that the higher entropy contributed by supermassive black holes puts the universe closer to heat death. Theorist Ned Wright of the University of California, Los Angelessays that because the extra entropy is locked inside the black holes, the rest of the universe should have lower entropy and be further away from heat death.

The new entropy calculation also highlights a cosmic puzzle, Carroll says. The entropy was relatively small in the early universe (1088), bigger now (10104), but still falls far short of the maximum (10122). No known physical principle can explain why the cosmic entropy is so low. But it's a good thing because the low value "is responsible for everything we experience about the [unidirectional] flow of time — breaking eggs, growing older and dying, remembering the past but not the future," notes Carroll. "The universe is incredibly more orderly than it has any right to be. Egan and Lineweaver have shown that it's just a bit more disorderly than we thought."

Image: A supermassive black hole "blows" gas bubbles in the bottom left. NASA.

Friday, 2 October 2009

Johnald's Fantastical Daily Link Splurge

Johnald's Fantastical Daily Link Splurge


Teen’s DIY Energy Hacking Gives African Village New Hope

Posted: 02 Oct 2009 10:32 AM PDT

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Some people see lemons and make lemonade. William Kamkwamba saw wind and made a windmill.

This might not seem like a mighty feat. But Kamkwamba, who grew up in Masitala, a tiny rural farming village off the grid in Malawi, was 14 years old in 2001 when he spotted a photo of a windmill in a U.S. textbook one day. He decided to make one, hacking together a contraption from strips of PVC pipe, rusty car and bicycle parts and blue gum trees.

Though he ultimately had big designs for his creation, all he really wanted to do initially was power a small bulb in his bedroom so he could stay up and read past sunset.

But one windmill has turned into three, which now generate enough electricity to light several bulbs in his family's house, power radios and a TV, charge his neighbors' cellphones and pump water for the village's fields and household use.

Now 22, Kamkwamba wants to build windmills across Malawi and perhaps beyond. Next summer he also plans to construct a drilling machine to bore 40-meter holes for water and pumps. His aim is to help Africans become self-sufficient and resolve their problems without reliance on foreign aid.

"The problem we have is electricity and water problems," he says. "I want to be tackling all of them at once."

In a country steeped in superstition and wracked by crushing hardship and government corruption, Kamkwamba's story is remarkable for its ingenuity and persistence.

Kamkwamba wasn't a natural-born over-achiever. Before windmills, his biggest ambition was to be a car mechanic. But when he was ejected from public school at 14 because his family couldn't afford the $80 tuition, his life seemed destined for the planting fields and back-breaking labor of his father, an impoverished maize and tobacco grower. Even that fate fell into question when drought and severe famine struck Malawi, one of Africa's poorest nations, in 2001 and 2002. It whittled away at Kamkwamba's already thin frame and killed off neighbors and friends, which he recounts with journalist Bryan Mealer in an engaging and spirited new book, The Boy Who Harnessed the Wind.

Rain and crops slowly returned the following season, but Kamkwamba still couldn't afford tuition. So with time on his hands, he began visiting a rural library where he found two textbooks — Explaining Physics and Using Energy — that detailed the marvels of electricity. The cover of the latter book featured a long row of towering windmills planted on brown hills, which "appeared so powerful that they made the photo itself appear to be in motion."

Malawi was short on many resources, but not wind. A windmill, Kamkwamba thought, would solve many problems for his parents and six sisters. Not only could it generate free electricity — saving his family the economic costs and health hazards of burning kerosene — but it could also pump deep well water to the family's maize and tobacco crops, releasing them from the tyranny of weather patterns and allowing them to add a second growing season to their harvest year.

"With a windmill, I could stay awake at night reading instead of going to bed at seven with the rest of Malawi," he writes. But more importantly, "with a windmill, we'd finally release ourselves from the troubles of darkness and hunger. . . A windmill meant more than just power, it was freedom."

He started with a small prototype. Then, with help from a cousin and friend, spent many weeks scrounging makeshift parts to construct the real thing.

The plan was to attach blades to the back axle of a bicycle and generate electricity through a bike dynamo. When the wind blew the blades, the sprocket and bike chain would spin the bike wheel, which would charge the dynamo and send a current through wire to the house.

For windmill blades, Kamkwamba slit a bathhouse PVC pipe in two, then heated the pieces over hot coals to press the curled edges flat. To bore holes into the blades, he stuck a nail through half a corn cob, heated the metal red and twisted it through the blades. It took three hours to repeatedly heat the nail and bore the needed holes.

william-adjusting-one-windmill

He then attached the long plastic blades to the shorter metal blades of a large tractor fan found in a dumpyard, and stripped out the piston from a large shock absorber to serve as the windmill shaft. To secure the plastic blades to the metal ones, he used proper nuts and bolts. But standing in for washers were 16 Carlsberg beer bottle caps, collected from outside the Ofesi Boozing Centre.

The dynamo, connected to a hand-crafted transformer, was sufficient to power a 12-volt battery that fed a current to a small light in his bedroom, where he fashioned an outlet and push button wall switch using the AC socket from a radio, copper wire, a plastic wall mount made from flattened PVC pipe and parts from a rubber flip-flop.

When it was all done, the windmill's wing span measured more than eight feet and sat atop a rickety tower 15 feet tall that swayed violently in strong gales. He eventually replaced the tower with a sturdier one that stands 39 feet.

The windmill brought Kamkwamba instant local fame. Villagers who called him a pot-smoking madman when he was scrounging for parts made pilgrimages to marvel at the wind shrine in action. But in 2006 when the maize crop failed and drought and famine were on the horizon again, some blamed his windmill witchcraft for blowing away the rainclouds. The talk only died down after the government and aid groups began distributing food.

Despite Kamkwamba's accomplishment, he still was unable to return to school because of the cost. But this began to change in late 2006. An education official who'd heard about the windmill came to visit and was amazed to learn that Kamkwamba had been out of school for five years. He arranged for Kamkwamba to attend secondary school at the government's expense and brought journalists to the farm to see the windmill. A story published in the Malawi Daily Mail caught the attention of bloggers, which in turn caught the attention of organizers for the Technology Entertainment and Design conference.

In 2007 Kamkwamba spoke at the TED Global conference in Tanzania and got a standing ovation. Venture capitalists stepped forward with offers to fund his education and projects, and with money donated by them, he was able to put his cousin and several friends back into school, pay for some medical needs of his family, drill a borehole for a well and water pump, and install drip irrigation in his father's fields and solar panels on his and other homes in the 60-family village.

The water pump has allowed his family to expand its crops. They've abandoned tobacco and now grow maize, beans, soybeans, potatoes and peanuts.

The windmills have also brought big lifestyle and health changes to the other villagers.

"The village has changed a lot," Kamkwamba says. "Now the time that they would spend going to fetch water, they are using that time for doing other things. And also the water they are drinking now is clean water."

The villagers have also stopped using kerosene, which means they no longer breathe in the toxic fumes and can use the money previously slated for fuel to buy other things. Kamkwamba's example has now inspired other kids in the village to pursue science. Where previously they had no futures, Kamkwamba says they now see that if they put their mind to something, they can achieve.

"It has changed the way people think," he says.

Kamkwamba is moving forward with his own education now and plans to teach other villagers how to build windmills. He's currently a senior in high school at the African Leadership Academy, a pan-African prep school in Johannesburg, South Africa, and is studying for his SATs to apply to colleges in the United States. A documentary about his achievements is in the works.

Image: Tom Rielly/TED

Belief in God an Evolutionary Boost, Suggest Brain Scans

Posted: 02 Oct 2009 09:56 AM PDT

godflat

Brain scans of people who believe in God have found further evidence that religion involves neurological regions vital for social intelligence.

In other words, whether or not God or Gods exist, religious belief may have been quite useful in shaping the human mind's evolution.

"The main point is that all these brain regions are important for other forms of social cognition and behavior," said Jordan Grafman, a National Institutes of Health cognitive scientist.

In a study published Monday in Public Library of Science ONE, Grafman's team used an MRI to measure the brains areas in 40 people of varying degrees of religious belief.

People who reported an intimate experience of God, engaged in religious behavior or feared God, tended to have larger-than-average brain regions devoted to empathy, symbolic communication and emotional regulation.

The results are full of caveats, from a small sample size to the focus on a western God. But they fit with Grafman's earlier work on how religious sentiment triggers other neural networks involved in social cognition.

That research, published in March in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, suggested that the capacity for religious thought may have bootstrapped a primitive human brain into its current, socially sophisticated form.

Grafman suspects that the origins of divine belief reside in mechanisms that evolved in order to help primates understand family members and other animals. "We tried to use the same social mechanisms to explain unusual phenomena in the natural world," he said.

The evolution of our brains continues, said Grafman. "The way we think now is not the way we thought 3,000 years ago," he said. "The nature of how we believe might change as well."

Citation: "Neuroanatomical Variability of Religiosity." By Dimitrios Kapogiannis, Aron K. Barbey, Michael Su, Frank Krueger, Jordan Grafman. Public Library of Science ONE, Vol. 4 No. 9, September 28, 2009.

See Also:

Brandon Keim's Twitter stream and reportorial outtakes; Wired Science on Twitter. Brandon is currently working on a book about ecosystem and planetary tipping points.

Reader Photo Gallery: More Stunning DIY Astrophotos

Posted: 02 Oct 2009 09:03 AM PDT

aa2_jellyfish

This gorgeous image of the Jellyfish Nebula leads off our second installment of reader-contributed astrophotography.

Also known as IC443, the Jellyfish in the upper right of the image is about 5,000 light years away in the constellation Gemini. It is the remnant of a supernova that exploded around 30,000 light years ago.

This image was captured by Mel Martin with an SBIG STL-11000 astronomical camera and a Takahashi 5-inch refractor telescope, from his backyard observatory near Tucson. The image took three hours of total exposure, 2 hours through a hydrogen-alpha filter, and one hour of color data.

"What I find interesting in all these images are the subtle differences in star colors sprinkled around the field of view," Martin wrote in an email to Wired.com. "Our eyes are attracted to the red hydrogen nebula, but the stars are really quite varied and pretty."

Below, this view of the Whirlpool galaxy 23 million light years away was captured by Stem cell researcher Alexander Boiko from his backyard in Menlo Park, California with an SBIG STL-11000 astronomical camera and telescope.

More images from Martin, Boiko and reader Iain Melville on the following page.

aa2_whirlpool

Thursday, 1 October 2009

Johnald's Fantastical Daily Link Splurge

Johnald's Fantastical Daily Link Splurge


Throwaway GPS Info Reveals Snow Depth Data

Posted: 01 Oct 2009 10:11 AM PDT

gps_snow

GPS receivers installed to measure the movements of tectonic plates and help you find tacos could find yet another purpose: measuring snow depth.

By analyzing the way the GPS signals are transformed as they travel through snowpack, a team of scientists from the University of Colorado, Boulder, may have found a cheap, easy way to optimize an important variable in climate models.

"It'll be hard, but it looks pretty good so far," said Kristine Larson, a GPS specialist at CU, and lead author of a paper on the technique published earlier this month in Geophysical Research Letters.

Her team, basically, is using waste data from the global positioning process. When a wave leaves a GPS satellite heading for a receiver, not all of it reaches the antenna directly. Some of it bounces off the ground around the actual antenna. For standard GPS purposes, people try to suppress this "multipath" signal, but Larson realized it could yield valuable information about the surfaces it's hitting. A few years ago, they trialed measuring soil moisture data based on the reflectivity of the ground. Snow, theoretically, should reduce the frequency of the multipath wave.

"It's one thing to say that you used a signal from a GPS satellite to estimate the depth of the snow, but unless I go out there with a yardstick and say this is 18 inches of snow, you don't know," Larson said.

So, after securing a seed grant and setting up the experiment, she went out there with a yardstick, husband and 10-year old son in tow. They drove out on Highway 36, past the Costco, and took measurements of snow depth and density. Though it might not have been the most glamorous fieldwork, it revealed two very important problems with existing measurement systems like the National Weather and Climate Center's SNOTEL sensor network.

First, point measurements — no matter how accurate — do not account well for snow-depth variability due to wind or other hyperlocal conditions.

"The snowpack can be 12 inches here and you walk one foot and it can be 18 inches there," Larson said. "That's your signal plus or minus 50 percent."

GPS can measure a wider area than any current ground-based method, allowing it to account for that variability. Theoretically, one could measure snow depth from space and get very broad area coverage. Unfortunately, no current satellite can do it. And any space-based system would be vastly more expensive and have a relatively limited life-span, maybe five years.

Second, climate modelers aren't interested in snow depth in the way that a skier might be. Really, what they're after is how much water is locked up in the snow. To calculate that, you need both the depth and the density of the pack. Right now, the best way to get snow density remains low-tech.

"We literally took plastic piping that you'd use in your house and you put that into the snow, then cover up the bottom, then you pull it up," Larsen said. "Then you wait for it to melt."

A little bit of high school math later, and you've got a density measurement for the snow in the PVC pipe. By matching up GPS signals with those density measurements, you can calibrate a model that yields snow density from GPS information alone. With the depth and density in hand, you can calculate the snow-water equivalent data that climate modelers covet.

Someday soon, the hundreds of GPS receivers scattered around the world's wintery wonderlands could be sending out snow data. It's about as close to getting something for nothing as a scientist could hope for.

"You've got to convince people that are measuring what you say you're measuring. You have to have people with sticks. You have to have ultrasonic snow-depth sensors," she said. "I'm not there yet, but it's a good first step."

gps-snow-data

See Also:

WiSci 2.0: Alexis Madrigal's Twitter, Google Reader feed, and green tech history research site; Wired Science on Twitter and Facebook.

Humanity Has a New 4.4 Million-Year-Old Baby Mama

Posted: 01 Oct 2009 07:54 AM PDT

ardi1hr

As of today, humankind may have a new mother, and she looks nothing like we expected her to.

Described in a series of papers published Thursday in Science, Ardi —short for Ardipithecus ramidus — likely walked upright one million years before Lucy, the famous fossil skeleton whose species was regarded as the first member of the human lineage.

That position now belongs to Ardi, and the reconfiguration of our family tree is not merely cosmetic. Lucy's story placed humanity's origin on the savannah; Ardi took her first steps in the forest. From the shape of Lucy's bones, scientists reasoned that the last common ancestor of humans and other great apes had resembled a chimpanzee; Ardi does not.

"This is a landmark," said Dean Falk, a University of Florida evolutionary anthropologist who reviewed the findings. "The field will go into a frenzy."

Falk's assessment was echoed by paleontologists around the world, who have waited for15 years since a handful of 4.4 million-year-old fossils, belonging to an unknown hominid species, were found in sediments along the Awash River in Ethiopia.

Even then, the fossils were clearly special. The name of the species, chosen by paleontologist discoverers Tim White, Gen Suwa and Berhane Asfaw of the Middle Awash Project, means "root ground ape" in local dialect. The fossils likely "represent a long-sought potential root species for the Hominidae," they wrote in a 1994 Nature paper.

From that original site, the Middle Awash team has since collected hundreds more A. ramidus fragments from 35 individuals, including a partially complete skeleton of the 4-foot-tall, 110-pound female now known as Ardi.

familytreeThe researchers' original assessment is not strictly correct: Ardi's A. ramidus preceded Lucy's Australopithecus afarensis, but some of her ancestors had already branched several million years earlier into a lineage that ends, for the moment, in chimpanzees and bonobos. But even if A. ramidus isn't at the root of all hominids, it's likely at the root of those hominids who became human.

Ardi "occupied the basal adaptive plateau of hominid natural history," wrote the researchers in one of the Science papers, and "is so rife with anatomical surprises that no one could have imagined it without direct fossil evidence."

ardi11hrLacking arches, and with thumb-like big toes, A. ramidus had grasping feet still fitted for tree-climbing, but its pelvis appears suited to walking upright. And though A. ramidus' teeth were appropriate for eating fruits and leaves, they also display evidence of root and insect consumption. Ardiappears adapted to life both in the branches and on the ground.

That interpretation fits the environment implied by thousands of plant and animal fossils, as well as ancient soil deposits, also collected at the site. Most belonged to residents of woodlands, not grasslands: whereas Lucy ventured onto the savannah, Ardi lived in a world of patchy, sun-dappled forests.

The savannah-as-cradle narrative is not the only conventional wisdom upset by Ardi. From Darwin on, most scientists thought that the last common ancestor of humans, chimpanzees and gorillas would be chimp-like. The discovery that chimps share 99 percent of our DNA, and possess many of the skeletal features found in Lucy, supported this.

But A. ramidus lacks many typical features of chimpanzees, including large male canine teeth — a sign, say the researchers, that the ultra-aggressive social behaviors seen in chimpanzees were lost early in the human lineage. If so, male A. ramidus may have competed for female attention by bringing them food, rather than fighting each other. That could have contributed to the evolution of pair-bonding behavior, which later took the form of monogamous reproductive relationships. Ardi's hands and pelvis were relatively human-like; so, perhaps, was her heart.

All this suggests that chimpanzees and other great apes have changed far more than thought since we split from them, and are perhaps not the near-human analogues that scientists presumed.

"One effect of chimpanzee-centric models of human evolution has been a tendency to view Australopithecus as transitional between an ape-like ancestor and early Homo. Ardipithecus ramidus nullifies these presumptions," wrote C. Owen Lovejoy, a Kent State University anthropologist, in Science. "No ape exhibits an even remotely similar evolutionary trajectory to that revealed by Ardipithecus."

William Jungers, a Stony Brook University paleoanthropologist, called the fossils "incredibly important."

He disagreed with the researchers' interpretation of A. ramidus' ability to walk upright —a skepticism seconded by Falk —but stressed the difference between this research and the hoopla that followed Ida, a 47 million-year-old lemur whose evolutionary importance was overhyped in May.

The fossils "will be intensely scrutinized and debated foryears to come," said Jungers. "The Ardipithecus saga impacts many aspects of human evolutionin genuinely profound ways."

Images: Science

See Also:

Citations: "Ardipithecus ramidus and the Paleobiology of Early Hominids." By Tim D. White, Berhane Asfaw, Yonas Beyene, Yohannes Haile-Selassie, C. Owen Lovejoy, Gen Suwa, Giday WoldeGabriel. Science, Vol. 326, No. 5949.

"Reexamining Human Origins in Light of Ardipithecus ramidus." By C. Owen Lovejoy. Science, Vol. 326, No. 5949.

"The Great Divides: Ardipithecus ramidus Reveals the Postcrania of Our Last Common Ancestors with African Apes." By C. Owen Lovejoy, Gen Suwa, Scott W. Simpson, Jay H. Matternes, Tim D. White. Science, Vol. 326, No. 5949.

"Combining Prehension and Propulsion: The Foot of Ardipithecus ramidus." By C. Owen Lovejoy, Bruce Latimer, Gen Suwa, Berhane Asfaw, Tim D. White. Science, Vol. 326, No. 5949.

"The Pelvis and Femur of Ardipithecus ramidus: The Emergence of Upright Walking." By C. Owen Lovejoy, Gen Suwa, Linda Spurlock, Berhane Asfaw, Tim D. White. Science, Vol. 326, No. 5949.

"Careful Climbing in the Miocene: The Forelimbs of Ardipithecus ramidus and Humans Are Primitive." By C. Owen Lovejoy, Scott W. Simpson, Tim D. White, Berhane Asfaw, Gen Suwa. Science, Vol. 326, No. 5949.

"The Ardipithecus ramidus Skull and Its Implications for Hominid Origins." By Gen Suwa, Berhane Asfaw, Reiko T. Kono, Daisuke Kubo, C. Owen Lovejoy, Tim D. White. Science, Vol. 326, No. 5949.

"Paleobiological Implications of the Ardipithecus ramidus Dentition." By Gen Suwa, Reiko T. Kono, Scott W. Simpson, Berhane Asfaw, C. Owen Lovejoy, Tim D. White. Science, Vol. 326, No. 5949.

"Macrovertebrate Paleontology and the Pliocene Habitat of Ardipithecus ramidus." By Tim D. White, Stanley H. Ambrose, Gen Suwa, Denise F. Su, David DeGusta, Raymond L. Bernor, Jean-Renaud Boisserie, Michel Brunet, Eric Delson, Stephen Frost, Nuria Garcia, Ioannis X. Giaourtsakis, Yohannes Haile-Selassie, F. Clark Howell, Thomas Lehmann, Andossa Likius, Cesur Pehlevan, Haruo Saegusa, Gina Semprebon, Mark Teaford, Elisabeth Vrba. Science, Vol. 326, No. 5949.

"Taphonomic, Avian, and Small-Vertebrate Indicators of Ardipithecus ramidus Habitat." By Antoine Louchart, Henry Wesselman, Robert J. Blumenschine, Leslea J. Hlusko, Jackson K. Njau, Michael T. Black, Mesfin Asnake, Tim D. White. Science, Vol. 326, No. 5949.

"The Geological, Isotopic, Botanical, Invertebrate, and Lower Vertebrate Surroundings of Ardipithecus ramidus." Giday WoldeGabriel, Stanley H. Ambrose, Doris Barboni, Raymonde Bonnefille, Laurent Bremond, Brian Currie, David DeGusta, William K. Hart, Alison M. Murray, Paul R. Renne, M. C. Jolly-Saad, Kathlyn M. Stewart, Tim D. White. Science, Vol. 326, No. 5949.

Brandon Keim's Twitter stream and reportorial outtakes; Wired Science on Twitter. Brandon is currently working on a book about ecosystem and planetary tipping points.

Tamiflu in Rivers Could Breed Drug-Resistant Flu Strains

Posted: 30 Sep 2009 05:10 PM PDT

tamifluriver

The premier flu-fighting drug is contaminating rivers downstream of sewage-treatment facilities, researchers in Japan confirm. The source: urinary excretion by people taking oseltamivir phosphate, best known as Tamiflu.

sciencenewsConcerns are now building that birds, which are natural influenza carriers, are being exposed to waterborne residues of Tamiflu's active form and might develop and spread drug-resistant strains of seasonal and avian flu.

For their new study, Gopal Ghosh and his colleagues at Kyoto University sampled water discharged from three local sewage treatment plants and water at several points along two rivers into which the treated water flowed. Sampling started early in December 2008, as flu season got underway. The researchers sampled again at the height of the seasonal flu's onslaught in early February and again as infection rates waned.

Tamiflu's active form, oseltamivir carboxylate or OC, turned up in the treated sewage on every occasion, the researchers report online September 28 in Environmental Health Perspectives. Values were in the low nanograms per liter range during the first and last samplings, and reached a high of almost 300 ng/L at one outflow during the flu's peak, a week when there were 1,738 recorded flu cases in Kyoto.

River residues showed up during only that second sampling — from low nanogram levels at most sampling points to a high of 190 ng/L in a portion of the Nishitakase River where treated sewage accounts for 90 percent of the flow.

Computer modeling has shown that OC should survive sewage treatment, notes Wolf von Tümpling Jr. of the Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research, a federal institute in Magdeburg, Germany. Ghosh's team is now the first to confirm this, he says. Von Tümpling's own data show that once exposed to sunlight, OC will break down, albeit slowly. Concentrations would fall at best by half every three weeks, he says.

If correlations predicted by earlier studies are correct, concentrations measured at some river sites in the new Kyoto study seem "high enough to lead to antiviral resistance in waterfowl," Ghosh says

And the Kyoto team didn't test during a pandemic, when Tamiflu prescription rates might be 10 times higher, von Tümpling notes.

Indeed, the expected coincident hits by seasonal and H1N1 swine flu this winter, could send Tamiflu use skyrocketing. In a July 14 letter, Food and Drug Administration deputy commissioner Joshua Sharfstein noted that "there is no adequate, approved and available alternative to the emergency use of certain oseltamivir phosphate products for the treatment and prophylaxis of influenza."

Once ingested, virtually all Tamiflu will end up in the environment in the active form, notes environmental chemist Jerker Fick of Umeå University in Sweden. The reason: Tamiflu becomes active once the body converts it into a carboxylate form. Roughly 80 percent of an ingested dose becomes this OC, which the body eventually excretes. The body sheds the remaining 20 percent of Tamiflu in its original form, but this phosphate form is immediately turned into the active, carboxylate form when it reaches a water treatment plant, he says.

Two years ago, Fick's team published data showing that most sewage-treatment technologies will remove "zero percent" of any OC present. And ducks love hanging out around warm, nutrient-rich outflows of treated water during winter-flu season. While sampling for waterborne OC last year in Japan, "I saw it myself," he says.

If Tamiflu resistance does develop in exposed birds, the affected flu strains will probably be conventional seasonal and avian flu strains, which claim thousands of lives each year, and not H1N1. That's because H1N1 seems to bypass birds as it spreads among people, notes William Schaffner, chair of preventive medicine at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine in Nashville, Tenn.

He also notes that U.S. policy is more conservative than Japan's when it comes to Tamiflu use. Federal guidelines, he says, recommend that "Tamiflu be reserved for treatment of the very sick and anyone who is immunocompromised."

Image: Flickr/Karmor

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Do Polynesian Canoes Evolve Like Finch Beaks?

Posted: 30 Sep 2009 01:44 PM PDT

canoedesigns

Despite the popularity of cultural evolution as an idea, with cultures as organisms and memes as genes, the actual science has lagged.

But by applying the tools of population genetics to Polynesian boat designs, researchers show that cultural evolution might be studied as rigorously as the beaks of finches.

"Evolution is a logical way of looking at change over time," said Deborah Rogers, a Stanford University evolutionary biologist. "There's nothing inherently biological about it. The logic can be applied to cultural change. Biology was just the first place that people ran with it."

Working with fellow Stanford researchers Marcus Feldman and Paul Ehrlich, Rogers converted archaeological records of Polynesian canoes, the design of which varied between islands and tribes, into standardized descriptions.

The structure of that dataset was described in a paper published last year in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. In the latest study, published in the November Proceedings of the Royal Society B, the researchers ran their data through a program of the sort typically used to analyze genetic information, inferring trees of relationships from patterns of inherited biological difference.

The resulting cultural tree suggests that New Zealand was at least partially settled from Hawaii, a hypothesis that fell from favor in the early 20th century. It also suggests a course of Polynesian settlement that started in the far western islands, jumped to the far eastern, then worked backwards to the original point of origin.

Those interpretations won't settle anthropological argument over Polynesian migrations, which have lasted for decades. But "what we're excited about isn't specifically what we found for Polynesia, but what we found out about our ability to use cultural data to infer historical patterns," said Rogers.

Earlier generations of anthropologists lacked both the tools of population genetics and the sheer computational power necessary for this study, which involved number-crunching through 10 million possible configurations of canoe taxonomy.

According to Rogers, their methods could be applied to anything from pottery design and fishhook construction to social and legal structures — anything that changed over time, and left a record of itself.

She next hopes to investigate the cultural evolution of class structure and social inequality.

"If culture changes based on some type of model that we can understand, we can understand where we came from," said Rogers.

Image: PNAS

See Also:

Citation: "Inferring population histories using cultural data." By Deborah S. Rogers, Marcus W. Feldman, and Paul R. Ehrlich. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, Vol. 276 No. 1674, November 7, 2009.

Brandon Keim's Twitter stream and reportorial outtakes; Wired Science on Twitter. Brandon is currently working on a book about ecosystem and planetary tipping points.

Data-Mining Medical Records Could Predict Domestic Violence

Posted: 30 Sep 2009 12:58 PM PDT

abusedetection2

To a busy emergency physician, a split lip or a case of poisoning is just one of those things they deal with. But to a computer mining the patient's medical history, it could be the last diagnosis needed to decipher a pattern of domestic violence.

Now, a group of researchers at Harvard University has created the first computer model to automatically detect the risk that a patient is being abused at home. The results were published Sept. 29 in the British Medical Journal.

"It's a great concept," said Debra Houry, an emergency physician at Emory University, who was not involved in the research. Although around one in four women experience domestic violence at some point in their lives, she says, the problem often goes unnoticed at a doctor's visit. "It's one of those hidden epidemics where they don't come up to you and disclose the issue."

In fact, patients often try to hide the abuse, says Ben Reis, a Harvard pediatrician and computer scientist who designed the new computer model. "Abused people actually go to different emergency rooms each time, so that [the abuse] is harder to track."

To get around this problem, Reis and his colleagues tapped into a public U.S. database containing six years of medical history for around half a million people. They fed a large portion of the database into a simple computer model — known as a naïve Bayesian classifier — which then calculated the abuse risks linked to different diagnoses such as burns, sprains or mental disorders.

riskgelAt present, medical records, even electronic ones, may be hard to interpret in the limited time a physician has to see a patient. "It's usually a big, long wine list," Reis says. "We reduced the entire history to one picture."

That picture is called a risk gel. In essence, it shows the patient's medical history as a bunch of colored bars representing diagnoses made at various visits. A green bar means the diagnosis is not statistically linked to abuse, while a red bar means it is. When the computer determines that the combined abuse risk based on all diagnoses is high, it sounds the alarm, letting the physician know that a face-to-face meeting is called for. "We see this system as a screening support system," Reis said.

But screening isn't the end-all, be-all for victims of domestic violence, says Gene Feder of the University of Bristol. He recently reviewed several trials of screening programs and found that none of them measured whether or not screening led to fewer deaths and injuries among abused women.

"Is [the new computer model] suitable for implementation in in-patient hospital and ER hospital settings without further testing?" he wrote in an e-mail to Wired.com. "Not without suitable training for clinicians in how to ask about abuse of the designated high-risk women and how to manage the women safely."

Still, researchers agree that domestic violence is severely underdetected by health care providers. But it shows up clearly in murder stats. According to the Harvard group, domestic abuse accounts for more than half of the murders of women in the United States. And without detection, there is no chance of helping the victims.

Using the new system, the researchers were able to predict abuse an average of two years before the doctor made the diagnosis. Presumably, the computer is picking up signs of ongoing maltreatment the patient hasn't yet revealed.

The researchers also speculate that, in principle, some subtle signal could precede direct abuse. One surprise finding that could be relevant, says Reis, is that infections turned out to be strongly linked to abuse. That might suggest worsening hygiene in the family or increased psychological stress, possible omens of abuse. But at this point, it is anybody's guess whether true predictions are possible.

Predictions or not, with the current model, fewer than 20 percent of the patients flagged as high-risk cases turned out to have a diagnosis of abuse. Part of the problem may be that the system is only as good as the data it was based on. And as Emory University's Houry points out, that data isn't up to speed when it comes to diagnosing abuse.

The Harvard researchers counter that their approach shows all the more promise because it works even when based on poor, real-world data. Working on a new government grant, they are now trying to improve the model and incorporate more data, a task that will get easier as electronic medical records become widespread among health care providers.

Within four years, the group hopes to have a full-fledged system ready, including a user interface optimized for doctors. "The long-term vision is one of predictive medicine, where vast amounts of information are used to improve health care, diagnosis, screening and outcomes," says Reis.

Yet the question remains how to translate a diagnosis into action that will help the victims of abuse. "Identifying in itself is not enough," says Houry. "But I believe it helps."

Images: 1) "Treemap visualizations of abuse risk associated with different diagnostic categories (for women) / Reis et. al., BMJ. 2) Risk gel visualization / Intelligenthistories.org

High-Res Images of New Territory on Mercury

Posted: 30 Sep 2009 11:36 AM PDT

mercury

Flying within 228 kilometers of the surface of Mercury on September 29, the MESSENGER spacecraft snapped portraits of a portion of the planet that had never before been imaged close-up.

mercurymapsciencenewsMESSENGER also examined in greater detail Mercury's western hemisphere, which had been imaged during a previous passage in October 2008 (SN Online: 10/29/08).

The September 29 encounter was the third and last flyby and gave the craft the gravitational assistance it needs to settle in March 2011 into a yearlong orbit around Mercury, the solar system's innermost and least explored planet. The first images from the latest encounter, which detail 5 percent of the planet that hadn't been examined by spacecraft before, were released on September 30 and more are expected over the next few days.


Images: NASA/Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory/Carnegie Institution of Washington

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